Akhisarspor 4–3 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats

Akhisarspor

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

İstanbulspor

12/7/2019

1. Lig · Round 14Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Akhisarspor37%

×Draw27%

İstanbulspor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkhisarsporExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.24

Akhisarspor

1.27

İstanbulspor

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 110 away

1.29

creates per match

1.39

1.09

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Akhisarspor

1.29

İstanbulspor

1.39

allows per match

Akhisarspor

1.09

İstanbulspor

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw

64%

Akhisarspor or İstanbulspor

73%

Draw or İstanbulspor

63%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+

16%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals

72%

Akhisarspor 2+ goals

36%

Akhisarspor 3+ goals

14%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

71%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

35%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)

51%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 1.29 + İstanbulspor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

İstanbulspor attack 1.39 + Akhisarspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Akhisarspor scores more

37%

level

27%

İstanbulspor scores more

36%

Akhisarspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhisarspor vs İstanbulspor

Akhisarspor beat İstanbulspor 4-3 in 1. Lig on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı in Akhisar.

Akhisarspor vs İstanbulspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Akhisarspor vs İstanbulspor