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Akhisarspor vs Galatasaray — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Galatasaray
Galatasarayadvanced
5/15/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · FinalYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Akhisarspor28%
×Draw24%
Galatasaray48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhisarspor
1.26
Galatasaray
1.71

Galatasaray creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Akhisarspor
1.40
Galatasaray
2.63

allows per match

Akhisarspor
0.80
Galatasaray
1.13

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par
Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw
52%
Akhisarspor or Galatasaray
76%
Draw or Galatasaray
72%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+
12%
Galatasaray wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals
72%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
36%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
13%
Galatasaray 1+ goals
82%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
51%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
37%
Galatasaray (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 1.40 + Galatasaray defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Galatasaray attack 2.63 + Akhisarspor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akhisarspor scores more
28%
level
24%
Galatasaray scores more
48%

Galatasaray at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Akhisarspor 1–3 Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat Akhisarspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Sivas.