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Akhisarspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
12/20/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundSpor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Akhisarspor39%
×Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhisarspor
1.45
Fatih Karagümrük
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Akhisarspor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.92

allows per match

Akhisarspor
0.80
Fatih Karagümrük
1.50

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw
65%
Akhisarspor or Fatih Karagümrük
75%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
61%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+
19%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals
77%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
42%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
18%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
74%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
39%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
53%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 1.40 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.92 + Akhisarspor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Akhisarspor scores more
39%
level
25%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
35%

Akhisarspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Akhisarspor 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük

Akhisarspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 20, 2018.

The match was played at Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı in Akhisar.