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Akhisarspor vs Eskişehirspor — 1. Lig 2018

Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
10/18/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 8Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Akhisarspor58%
×Draw22%
Eskişehirspor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhisarspor
1.91
Eskişehirspor
1.02

Akhisarspor creates 87% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

Akhisarspor
1.29
Eskişehirspor
0.96

allows per match

Akhisarspor
1.09
Eskişehirspor
2.53

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par
Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

Eskişehirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw
80%
Akhisarspor or Eskişehirspor
78%
Draw or Eskişehirspor
42%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+
34%
Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals
85%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
57%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
30%
Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
64%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
27%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
74%
Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Eskişehirspor away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 1.29 + Eskişehirspor defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.91

Eskişehirspor attack 0.96 + Akhisarspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Akhisarspor scores more
58%
level
22%
Eskişehirspor scores more
20%

Akhisarspor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhisarspor vs Eskişehirspor

Akhisarspor beat Eskişehirspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on October 18, 2019.

The match was played at Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı in Akhisar.