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Akhisarspor vs Boluspor — 1. Lig 2018

Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Boluspor
Boluspor
11/8/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 9Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Akhisarspor42%
×Draw27%
Boluspor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhisarspor
1.34
Boluspor
1.12

Akhisarspor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 148 away

creates per match

Akhisarspor
1.29
Boluspor
1.15

allows per match

Akhisarspor
1.09
Boluspor
1.40

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par
Boluspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

Boluspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw
69%
Akhisarspor or Boluspor
73%
Draw or Boluspor
58%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+
19%
Boluspor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals
74%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
39%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
15%
Boluspor 1+ goals
67%
Boluspor 2+ goals
31%
Boluspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
57%
Boluspor (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Boluspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 1.29 + Boluspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Boluspor attack 1.15 + Akhisarspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akhisarspor scores more
42%
level
27%
Boluspor scores more
31%

Akhisarspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Akhisarspor 2–2 Boluspor

Akhisarspor and Boluspor drew 2-2 in 1. Lig on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı in Akhisar.