Akhisarspor 1–0 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Akhisarspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bandırmaspor

1/29/2021

1. Lig · Round 19Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Akhisarspor39%

×Draw27%

Bandırmaspor34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkhisarsporExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.18

Akhisarspor

1.30

Bandırmaspor

1.18

Akhisarspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 110 away

1.29

creates per match

1.27

1.09

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Akhisarspor

1.29

Bandırmaspor

1.27

allows per match

Akhisarspor

1.09

Bandırmaspor

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw

66%

Akhisarspor or Bandırmaspor

73%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

61%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+

18%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals

73%

Akhisarspor 2+ goals

37%

Akhisarspor 3+ goals

14%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

69%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

33%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)

54%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 1.29 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Akhisarspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Akhisarspor scores more

39%

level

27%

Bandırmaspor scores more

34%

Akhisarspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff