Akademiya Ontustik 2–4 Ordabasy: Result & Stats

Akademiya Ontustik

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Ordabasy

D. Mitkov 55' (OG)

A. Khaldar 27'

Z. Amir 88', 45'

E. Astanov 71'

V. Naumets 12'

4/8/2026

Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik35%

×Draw24%

Ordabasy41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademiya OntustikExpected goals in this matchOrdabasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.60

Akademiya Ontustik

1.45

Ordabasy

1.60

Ordabasy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.40

creates per match

2.00

1.20

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik

2.40

Ordabasy

2.00

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik

1.20

Ordabasy

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Ordabasy →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw

59%

Akademiya Ontustik or Ordabasy

76%

Draw or Ordabasy

65%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

16%

Ordabasy wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

77%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

42%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

18%

Ordabasy 1+ goals

80%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

47%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

46%

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 2.40 + Ordabasy defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ordabasy attack 2.00 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

35%

level

24%

Ordabasy scores more

41%

Ordabasy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

V. Naumets

27'

A. Khaldar↳ R. Nasibov

45'

Z. Amir↳ E. Astanov

55'

D. MitkovOwn goal

71'

E. Astanov

88'

Z. Amir↳ S. Astanov

Akademiya

Ordabasy

Manager: Nikolay Stoyakin

Manager: Andrei Martin