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Akademiya Ontustik vs Irtysh — Cup 2019

Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Irtysh
Irtysh
Z. Babanazarov 39'
3/21/2024CupCup · Play-offsBIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik61%
×Draw20%
Irtysh19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Ontustik
2.15
Irtysh
1.10

Akademiya Ontustik creates 95% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik
2.63
Irtysh
0.33

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.88
Irtysh
1.67

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par
Irtysh+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Irtysh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw
81%
Akademiya Ontustik or Irtysh
80%
Draw or Irtysh
39%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
38%
Irtysh wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
88%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
63%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
36%
Irtysh 1+ goals
67%
Irtysh 2+ goals
30%
Irtysh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
77%
Irtysh (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Irtysh away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 2.63 + Irtysh defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Irtysh attack 0.33 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more
61%
level
20%
Irtysh scores more
19%

Akademiya Ontustik at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
K. Khasanov
25'
T. Bayzhanov
39'
Z. Babanazarov
46'
A. Erzhanov← A. Erzhanov
59'
I. Shermetov← I. Shermetov
59'
D. Nyshantay← D. Nyshantay
66'
M. Erengaip← M. Erengaip
70'
A. Erzhanov
71'
I. Kulzhanov← N. Borovskiy
76'
M. Begaly← M. Begaly
78'
M. Toktybay
78'
P. Barkunov
90'
M. Anishchenko← M. Anishchenko
90'
M. Erengaip

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Akademiya Ontustik 1–0 Irtysh

Akademiya Ontustik beat Irtysh 1-0 in Cup on March 21, 2024.

Goals: Z. Babanazarov (39').

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.