Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–6 Rotor Volgograd U20

Akademiya Konoplev U20

FT

3 – 6

Rotor Volgograd U20

E. Aleksandrov 90+1'

S. Tashchyan 89'

R. Orudzhov 23'

A. Biryukov 86'

K. Dontsov 79'

Y. Shcherbin 63' (pen)

D. Mikhailov 57'

V. Gosinkeev 30'

D. Vershkov 5'

5/23/2021

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 9Stadion Akademii im. Yuriya Konopleva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Akademiya Konoplev U2036%

×Draw23%

Rotor Volgograd U2042%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademiya Konoplev U20Expected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.79

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.65

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

1.57

2.01

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.38

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.57

allows per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20

2.01

Rotor Volgograd U20

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Konoplev U20 ↓

Rotor Volgograd U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or draw

58%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or Rotor Volgograd U20

77%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd U20

64%

Winning margin

Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+

18%

Rotor Volgograd U20 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals

81%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals

49%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals

23%

Rotor Volgograd U20 1+ goals

83%

Rotor Volgograd U20 2+ goals

53%

Rotor Volgograd U20 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Rotor Volgograd U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.01 · 72 matches

Rotor Volgograd U20 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.38 + Rotor Volgograd U20 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Rotor Volgograd U20 attack 1.57 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more

36%

level

23%

Rotor Volgograd U20 scores more

42%

Rotor Volgograd U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. Vershkov

23'

R. Orudzhov

30'

V. Gosinkeev

57'

D. Mikhailov

63'

Y. ShcherbinPenalty

79'

K. Dontsov

86'

A. Biryukov

89'

S. Tashchyan

90+1'

E. Aleksandrov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff