Akademiya Konoplev U20 0–2 Orenburg U19

Akademiya Konoplev U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Orenburg U19

7/21/2023

Youth Championship · Round 3Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Akademiya Konoplev U2052%

×Draw22%

Orenburg U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademiya Konoplev U20Expected goals in this matchOrenburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.40

Akademiya Konoplev U20

2.02

Orenburg U19

1.40

Akademiya Konoplev U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 38 away

1.38

creates per match

0.79

2.01

allows per match

2.66

creates per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.38

Orenburg U19

0.79

allows per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20

2.01

Orenburg U19

2.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par

Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Konoplev U20 ↓

Orenburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or draw

73%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or Orenburg U19

78%

Draw or Orenburg U19

48%

Winning margin

Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+

30%

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals

87%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals

60%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals

33%

Orenburg U19 1+ goals

75%

Orenburg U19 2+ goals

41%

Orenburg U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.01 · 72 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.38 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.02

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more

52%

level

22%

Orenburg U19 scores more

27%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Akademiya Konoplev U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff