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Akademiya Konoplev U20 vs Krasnodar U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Akademiya Konoplev U20
Akademiya Konoplev U20
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
5/17/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 10Stadion Akademii im. Yuriya Konopleva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Akademiya Konoplev U2026%
×Draw22%
Krasnodar U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Konoplev U20
1.32
Krasnodar U19
1.97

Krasnodar U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 78 away

creates per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20
1.38
Krasnodar U19
1.94

allows per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20
2.01
Krasnodar U19
1.27

finishing

Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par
Krasnodar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Konoplev U20 ↓

Krasnodar U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or draw
48%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 or Krasnodar U19
78%
Draw or Krasnodar U19
74%

Winning margin

Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+
11%
Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals
73%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals
38%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals
15%
Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
86%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
58%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)
33%
Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.01 · 72 matches

Krasnodar U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.38 + Krasnodar U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Krasnodar U19 attack 1.94 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more
26%
level
22%
Krasnodar U19 scores more
52%

Krasnodar U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademiya Konoplev U20 vs Krasnodar U19

Akademiya Konoplev U20 beat Krasnodar U19 4-2 in Youth Championship on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii im. Yuriya Konopleva in Primorskiy.