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Akademiya Konoplev U20 vs FShM U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Akademiya Konoplev U20
Akademiya Konoplev U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FShM U19
FShM U19
11/10/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 17Stadion Akademii im. Yuriya Konopleva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Akademiya Konoplev U2048%
×Draw23%
FShM U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Konoplev U20
1.80
FShM U19
1.34

Akademiya Konoplev U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 9 away

creates per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20
1.38
FShM U19
0.67

allows per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20
2.01
FShM U19
2.22

finishing

Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par
FShM U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Konoplev U20 ↓

FShM U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or draw
71%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 or FShM U19
77%
Draw or FShM U19
52%

Winning margin

Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+
26%
FShM U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals
83%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals
54%
Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals
27%
FShM U19 1+ goals
74%
FShM U19 2+ goals
39%
FShM U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)
63%
FShM U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.01 · 72 matches

FShM U19 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.38 + FShM U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.80

FShM U19 attack 0.67 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more
48%
level
23%
FShM U19 scores more
29%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akademiya Konoplev U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademiya Konoplev U20 vs FShM U19

Akademiya Konoplev U20 beat FShM U19 3-2 in Youth Championship on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii im. Yuriya Konopleva in Primorskiy.