Akademiya Konoplev U20 1–2 CSKA Moskva U20

Akademiya Konoplev U20

FT

1 – 2

CSKA Moskva U20

11/25/2020

Youth Championship · Round 11Stadion Akademii im. Yuriya Konopleva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Akademiya Konoplev U2019%

×Draw20%

CSKA Moskva U2061%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademiya Konoplev U20Expected goals in this matchCSKA Moskva U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.25

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.17

CSKA Moskva U20

2.25

CSKA Moskva U20 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 20 away

1.38

creates per match

2.50

2.01

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20

1.38

CSKA Moskva U20

2.50

allows per match

Akademiya Konoplev U20

2.01

CSKA Moskva U20

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademiya Konoplev U20+0.00on par

CSKA Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Konoplev U20 ↓

CSKA Moskva U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or draw

39%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 or CSKA Moskva U20

80%

Draw or CSKA Moskva U20

81%

Winning margin

Akademiya Konoplev U20 wins by 2+

7%

CSKA Moskva U20 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Akademiya Konoplev U20 1+ goals

69%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 2+ goals

33%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 3+ goals

11%

CSKA Moskva U20 1+ goals

89%

CSKA Moskva U20 2+ goals

65%

CSKA Moskva U20 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Konoplev U20 (draw refunded)

24%

CSKA Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.01 · 72 matches

CSKA Moskva U20 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Konoplev U20 attack 1.38 + CSKA Moskva U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

CSKA Moskva U20 attack 2.50 + Akademiya Konoplev U20 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Akademiya Konoplev U20 scores more

19%

level

20%

CSKA Moskva U20 scores more

61%

CSKA Moskva U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff