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Akademik Svishtov vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
FT
5 – 0
Tryavna
Tryavna
4/21/2019Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 24Stadion Akademik (Svishtov (Svištov))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Akademik Svishtov74%
×Draw16%
Tryavna10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
2.44
Tryavna
0.77

Akademik Svishtov creates 217% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 39 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
90%
Akademik Svishtov or Tryavna
84%
Draw or Tryavna
26%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
51%
Tryavna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
91%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
70%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
43%
Tryavna 1+ goals
54%
Tryavna 2+ goals
18%
Tryavna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
88%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.44

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
74%
level
16%
Tryavna scores more
10%

Akademik Svishtov at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademik Svishtov vs Tryavna

Akademik Svishtov beat Tryavna 5-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik (Svishtov (Svištov)).