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Akademik Svishtov vs OFK Levski — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFK Levski
OFK Levski
9/6/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 3Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Akademik Svishtov65%
×Draw20%
OFK Levski15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
2.14
OFK Levski
0.91

Akademik Svishtov creates 135% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 100 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
OFK Levski
0.90

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
OFK Levski
2.30

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

OFK Levski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
85%
Akademik Svishtov or OFK Levski
80%
Draw or OFK Levski
35%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
41%
OFK Levski wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
88%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
63%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
36%
OFK Levski 1+ goals
60%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
23%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
81%
OFK Levski (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.14

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
65%
level
20%
OFK Levski scores more
15%

Akademik Svishtov at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Akademik Svishtov 2–0 OFK Levski

Akademik Svishtov beat OFK Levski 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Svishtov (Svištov).