Akademik Svishtov 3–0 Drenovets: Result & Stats

Akademik Svishtov

FT

3 – 0

Drenovets

10/7/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 9Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Akademik Svishtov70%

×Draw18%

Drenovets12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademik SvishtovExpected goals in this matchDrenovets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.83

Akademik Svishtov

2.27

Drenovets

0.83

Akademik Svishtov creates 173% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 68 away

1.98

creates per match

0.76

0.91

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov

1.98

Drenovets

0.76

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov

0.91

Drenovets

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Drenovets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw

88%

Akademik Svishtov or Drenovets

82%

Draw or Drenovets

30%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+

46%

Drenovets wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals

90%

Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals

66%

Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals

39%

Drenovets 1+ goals

56%

Drenovets 2+ goals

20%

Drenovets 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)

85%

Drenovets (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.27

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more

70%

level

18%

Drenovets scores more

12%

Akademik Svishtov at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff