Akademik Svishtov 0–2 Botev Lukovit: Result & Stats

Akademik Svishtov

FT

0 – 2

Botev Lukovit

3/24/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 20Stadion Akademik (Svishtov (Svištov))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Akademik Svishtov63%

×Draw21%

Botev Lukovit16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademik SvishtovExpected goals in this matchBotev Lukovit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.85

Akademik Svishtov

1.96

Botev Lukovit

0.85

Akademik Svishtov creates 131% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 15 away

1.98

creates per match

0.80

0.91

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov

1.98

Botev Lukovit

0.80

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov

0.91

Botev Lukovit

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Botev Lukovit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw

84%

Akademik Svishtov or Botev Lukovit

79%

Draw or Botev Lukovit

37%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+

38%

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals

86%

Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals

58%

Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals

31%

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

57%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

21%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)

80%

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more

63%

level

21%

Botev Lukovit scores more

16%

Akademik Svishtov at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff