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Akademik Svishtov vs Boruna Tsareva livada — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
FT
3 – 1
Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
11/3/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 13Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Akademik Svishtov71%
×Draw18%
Boruna Tsareva livada12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
2.30
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.81

Akademik Svishtov creates 184% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 29 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.72

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
Boruna Tsareva livada
2.62

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
88%
Akademik Svishtov or Boruna Tsareva livada
82%
Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada
29%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
47%
Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
90%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
67%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
40%
Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
56%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
19%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
86%
Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.30

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
71%
level
18%
Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
12%

Akademik Svishtov at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Akademik Svishtov 3–1 Boruna Tsareva livada

Akademik Svishtov beat Boruna Tsareva livada 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Svištov.