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Akademija Pandev vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
4/6/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Akademija Pandev41%
×Draw28%
Vardar Skopje32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademija Pandev
1.29
Vardar Skopje
1.10

Akademija Pandev creates 17% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 78 away

creates per match

Akademija Pandev
1.45
Vardar Skopje
1.14

allows per match

Akademija Pandev
1.06
Vardar Skopje
1.13

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw
68%
Akademija Pandev or Vardar Skopje
72%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
59%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
18%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
72%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
37%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
14%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
67%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
30%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
56%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more
41%
level
28%
Vardar Skopje scores more
32%

Akademija Pandev at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Akademija Pandev 2-0 in First League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Blagoj Istatov in Strumica.