Akademija Pandev 0–1 Renova: Result & Stats

Akademija Pandev

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Renova

S. Shefiti 73'

12/2/2020

First League · Round 14Sportski Centar Pandev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Akademija Pandev46%

×Draw26%

Renova28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademija PandevExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Akademija Pandev

1.48

Renova

1.10

Akademija Pandev creates 35% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 46 away

1.45

creates per match

1.15

1.06

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Akademija Pandev

1.45

Renova

1.15

allows per match

Akademija Pandev

1.06

Renova

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw

72%

Akademija Pandev or Renova

74%

Draw or Renova

54%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+

23%

Renova wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals

77%

Akademija Pandev 2+ goals

43%

Akademija Pandev 3+ goals

19%

Renova 1+ goals

67%

Renova 2+ goals

30%

Renova 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)

62%

Renova (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Renova away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Renova attack 1.15 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more

46%

level

26%

Renova scores more

28%

Akademija Pandev at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

K. Trapanovski← M. Radeski

51'

T. Iliev

52'

S. Pandev

61'

A. Shala

62'

K. Velinovski← S. Pandev

69'

A. Jasharovski← S. Muharem

73'

G. Stoilov

73'

S. Shefiti

77'

M. Maslać← D. Milovanovikj

84'

S. Fetai← R. Selmani

90+4'

J. Selmani← E. Ramadani

Akademija

Renova

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Trenchovski

42'▲K. Trapanovski←▼M. Radeski

62'▲K. Velinovski←▼S. Pandev

77'▲M. Maslać←▼D. Milovanovikj

Akademija Pandev substitutes

TrapanovskiVelinovskiMaslać

Manager: Q. Osmani

69'▲A. Jasharovski←▼S. Muharem

84'▲S. Fetai←▼R. Selmani

90+4'▲J. Selmani←▼E. Ramadani

Renova substitutes

JasharovskiFetaiSelmani

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs Renova

Renova beat Akademija Pandev 1-0 in First League on December 2, 2020.

Goals: S. Shefiti (73').

The match was played at Sportski Centar Pandev in Strumica.

Akademija Pandev vs Renova — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs Renova