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Akademija Pandev vs Makedonija GjP — First League 2019

Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
2/25/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion Kukuš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Akademija Pandev48%
×Draw25%
Makedonija GjP27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademija Pandev
1.55
Makedonija GjP
1.10

Akademija Pandev creates 41% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 94 away

creates per match

Akademija Pandev
1.45
Makedonija GjP
1.14

allows per match

Akademija Pandev
1.06
Makedonija GjP
1.65

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par
Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Makedonija GjP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw
73%
Akademija Pandev or Makedonija GjP
75%
Draw or Makedonija GjP
52%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
24%
Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
79%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
46%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
20%
Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
67%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
30%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
64%
Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more
48%
level
25%
Makedonija GjP scores more
27%

Akademija Pandev at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs Makedonija GjP

Akademija Pandev beat Makedonija GjP 3-0 in First League on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kukuš in Turnovo.