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Akademija Pandev vs Bregalnica Štip — First League 2019

Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
5/4/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion Kukuš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Akademija Pandev51%
×Draw26%
Bregalnica Štip23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademija Pandev
1.54
Bregalnica Štip
0.94

Akademija Pandev creates 64% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 47 away

creates per match

Akademija Pandev
1.45
Bregalnica Štip
0.81

allows per match

Akademija Pandev
1.06
Bregalnica Štip
1.64

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par
Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Bregalnica Štip →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw
77%
Akademija Pandev or Bregalnica Štip
74%
Draw or Bregalnica Štip
49%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
26%
Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
79%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
45%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
20%
Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
61%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
24%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
69%
Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bregalnica Štip attack 0.81 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more
51%
level
26%
Bregalnica Štip scores more
23%

Akademija Pandev at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs Bregalnica Štip

Akademija Pandev and Bregalnica Štip drew 1-1 in First League on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kukuš in Turnovo.