Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs Pogon Tczew W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
FT
4 – 1
Pogon Tczew W
Pogon Tczew W
3/23/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 15Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W59%
×Draw21%
Pogon Tczew W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
2.07
Pogon Tczew W
1.12

Akademia Piłkarska LG W creates 85% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.33
Pogon Tczew W
0.88

allows per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.36
Pogon Tczew W
2.81

finishing

Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par
Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademia Piłkarska LG W ↓

Pogon Tczew W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Akademia Piłkarska LG W or draw
80%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W or Pogon Tczew W
79%
Draw or Pogon Tczew W
41%

Winning margin

Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
36%
Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
87%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
61%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
34%
Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals
67%
Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals
31%
Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
75%
Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Pogon Tczew W away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.81 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.33 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.07

Pogon Tczew W attack 0.88 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
59%
level
21%
Pogon Tczew W scores more
20%

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Akademia Piłkarska LG W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs Pogon Tczew W

Akademia Piłkarska LG W beat Pogon Tczew W 4-1 in Ekstraliga Women on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Gdańsk.