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Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs Górnik Łęczna W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Łęczna W
Górnik Łęczna W
3/15/2026Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W25%
×Draw23%
Górnik Łęczna W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.25
Górnik Łęczna W
1.88

Górnik Łęczna W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.33
Górnik Łęczna W
2.39

allows per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.36
Górnik Łęczna W
1.18

finishing

Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademia Piłkarska LG W ↓

Górnik Łęczna W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Akademia Piłkarska LG W or draw
48%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W or Górnik Łęczna W
77%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna W
75%

Winning margin

Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
10%
Górnik Łęczna W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
71%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
36%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
13%
Górnik Łęczna W 1+ goals
85%
Górnik Łęczna W 2+ goals
56%
Górnik Łęczna W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
33%
Górnik Łęczna W (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Górnik Łęczna W away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.33 + Górnik Łęczna W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Górnik Łęczna W attack 2.39 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
25%
level
23%
Górnik Łęczna W scores more
52%

Górnik Łęczna W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1–4 Górnik Łęczna W

Górnik Łęczna W beat Akademia Piłkarska LG W 4-1 in Ekstraliga Women on March 15, 2026.