Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs GKS Katowice W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 1
GKS Katowice W
GKS Katowice W
11/8/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 11Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W21%
×Draw22%
GKS Katowice W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.07
GKS Katowice W
1.89

GKS Katowice W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.33
GKS Katowice W
2.42

allows per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.36
GKS Katowice W
0.82

finishing

Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par
GKS Katowice W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademia Piłkarska LG W ↓

GKS Katowice W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Akademia Piłkarska LG W or draw
44%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W or GKS Katowice W
78%
Draw or GKS Katowice W
79%

Winning margin

Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
8%
GKS Katowice W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
66%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
29%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
9%
GKS Katowice W 1+ goals
85%
GKS Katowice W 2+ goals
56%
GKS Katowice W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
27%
GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

GKS Katowice W away — creates 2.42, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.33 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

GKS Katowice W attack 2.42 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
21%
level
22%
GKS Katowice W scores more
56%

GKS Katowice W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs GKS Katowice W

GKS Katowice W beat Akademia Piłkarska LG W 5-2 in Ekstraliga Women on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Gdańsk.