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Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs Czarni Sosnowiec W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
Akademia Piłkarska LG W
FT
2 – 0
Czarni Sosnowiec W
Czarni Sosnowiec W
11/12/2023Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 10Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Akademia Piłkarska LG W19%
×Draw21%
Czarni Sosnowiec W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.09
Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.08

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.33
Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.79

allows per match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W
1.36
Czarni Sosnowiec W
0.85

finishing

Akademia Piłkarska LG W+0.00on par
Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademia Piłkarska LG W ↓

Czarni Sosnowiec W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Akademia Piłkarska LG W or draw
40%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W or Czarni Sosnowiec W
79%
Draw or Czarni Sosnowiec W
81%

Winning margin

Akademia Piłkarska LG W wins by 2+
7%
Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Akademia Piłkarska LG W 1+ goals
66%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 2+ goals
30%
Akademia Piłkarska LG W 3+ goals
10%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals
87%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals
61%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Akademia Piłkarska LG W (draw refunded)
24%
Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademia Piłkarska LG W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademia Piłkarska LG W attack 1.33 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 2.79 + Akademia Piłkarska LG W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Akademia Piłkarska LG W scores more
19%
level
21%
Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more
60%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademia Piłkarska LG W vs Czarni Sosnowiec W

Akademia Piłkarska LG W beat Czarni Sosnowiec W 2-0 in Ekstraliga Women on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Gdańsk.