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Ajka vs Uta Arad — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ajka
Ajka
FT
0 – 1
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
1/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ajka33%
×Draw25%
Uta Arad42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajka
1.29
Uta Arad
1.50

Uta Arad creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ajka
1.57
Uta Arad
1.44

allows per match

Ajka
1.57
Uta Arad
1.00

finishing

Ajka+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajka ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ajka or draw
58%
Ajka or Uta Arad
75%
Draw or Uta Arad
67%

Winning margin

Ajka wins by 2+
14%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ajka 1+ goals
72%
Ajka 2+ goals
37%
Ajka 3+ goals
14%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
78%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
44%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ajka (draw refunded)
44%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajka at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajka attack 1.57 + Uta Arad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Uta Arad attack 1.44 + Ajka defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ajka scores more
33%
level
25%
Uta Arad scores more
42%

Uta Arad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ajka 0–1 Uta Arad

Uta Arad beat Ajka 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Makó.