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Ajka vs Kazincbarcikai — League #272 2026

Ajka
Ajka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kazincbarcikai
Kazincbarcikai
3/3/2024League #272League #272 · Round 23Ajkai Városi Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ajka29%
×Draw28%
Kazincbarcikai43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajka
1.00
Kazincbarcikai
1.27

Kazincbarcikai creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ajka
1.00
Kazincbarcikai
0.67

allows per match

Ajka
1.86
Kazincbarcikai
1.00

finishing

Ajka+0.00on par
Kazincbarcikai+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajka ↓

Kazincbarcikai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ajka or draw
57%
Ajka or Kazincbarcikai
72%
Draw or Kazincbarcikai
71%

Winning margin

Ajka wins by 2+
11%
Kazincbarcikai wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ajka 1+ goals
63%
Ajka 2+ goals
26%
Ajka 3+ goals
8%
Kazincbarcikai 1+ goals
72%
Kazincbarcikai 2+ goals
36%
Kazincbarcikai 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ajka (draw refunded)
41%
Kazincbarcikai (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Kazincbarcikai away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajka attack 1.00 + Kazincbarcikai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kazincbarcikai attack 0.67 + Ajka defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ajka scores more
29%
level
28%
Kazincbarcikai scores more
43%

Kazincbarcikai at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kazincbarcikai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #272: Ajka 1–0 Kazincbarcikai

Ajka beat Kazincbarcikai 1-0 in League #272 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ajkai Városi Sportcentrum in Ajka.