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Ajim Djerba vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Cup 2019

Ajim Djerba
Ajim Djerba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omraneadvanced
G. Ben Hamida 72'
H. Khemissi 4'
4/18/2026CupCup · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ajim Djerba20%
×Draw25%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajim Djerba
0.86
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.64

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 91% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ajim Djerba
1.33
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2.60

allows per match

Ajim Djerba
0.67
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.40

finishing

Ajim Djerba+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajim Djerba ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ajim Djerba or draw
44%
Ajim Djerba or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
75%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
80%

Winning margin

Ajim Djerba wins by 2+
6%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Ajim Djerba 1+ goals
58%
Ajim Djerba 2+ goals
21%
Ajim Djerba 3+ goals
6%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
81%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
49%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ajim Djerba (draw refunded)
26%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajim Djerba at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajim Djerba attack 1.33 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.60 + Ajim Djerba defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ajim Djerba scores more
20%
level
25%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
56%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
H. Khemissi
72'
G. Ben Hamida

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Ajim Djerba 0–2 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane beat Ajim Djerba 2-0 in Cup on April 18, 2026.

Goals: H. Khemissi (4'), G. Ben Hamida (72').