Ajim Djerba 2–0 EM Mahdia: Result & Stats | Cup

Ajim Djerba

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

EM Mahdia

3/23/2026

Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ajim Djerba50%

×Draw25%

EM Mahdia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajim DjerbaExpected goals in this matchEM Mahdia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.05

Ajim Djerba

1.60

EM Mahdia

1.05

Ajim Djerba creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.43

0.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Ajim Djerba

1.33

EM Mahdia

1.43

allows per match

Ajim Djerba

0.67

EM Mahdia

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajim Djerba+0.00on par

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajim Djerba ↓

EM Mahdia →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ajim Djerba or draw

75%

Ajim Djerba or EM Mahdia

75%

Draw or EM Mahdia

50%

Winning margin

Ajim Djerba wins by 2+

26%

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

Team goals

Ajim Djerba 1+ goals

80%

Ajim Djerba 2+ goals

47%

Ajim Djerba 3+ goals

22%

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

65%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

28%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ajim Djerba (draw refunded)

67%

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ajim Djerba at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ajim Djerba attack 1.33 + EM Mahdia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

EM Mahdia attack 1.43 + Ajim Djerba defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ajim Djerba scores more

50%

level

25%

EM Mahdia scores more

25%

Ajim Djerba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ajim Djerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff