Ajax W 8–0 Utrecht W: Result & Stats

Ajax W

FT

8 – 0

HT: 6 – 0

Utrecht W

R. Derks 61', 56', 26'

D. Tolhoek 45', 39'

J. van de Velde 45'

B. Van Egmond 28', 6'

12/7/2025

Eredivisie Women · Round 9Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ajax W61%

×Draw20%

Utrecht W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax WExpected goals in this matchUtrecht W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.14

Ajax W

2.17

Utrecht W

1.14

Ajax W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 33 away

2.69

creates per match

1.70

0.58

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Ajax W

2.69

Utrecht W

1.70

allows per match

Ajax W

0.58

Utrecht W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax W+0.00on par

Utrecht W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax W ↓

Utrecht W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ajax W or draw

81%

Ajax W or Utrecht W

80%

Draw or Utrecht W

39%

Winning margin

Ajax W wins by 2+

38%

Utrecht W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ajax W 1+ goals

89%

Ajax W 2+ goals

64%

Ajax W 3+ goals

36%

Utrecht W 1+ goals

68%

Utrecht W 2+ goals

32%

Utrecht W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ajax W (draw refunded)

76%

Utrecht W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax W at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.58 · 72 matches

Utrecht W away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax W attack 2.69 + Utrecht W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.17

Utrecht W attack 1.70 + Ajax W defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ajax W scores more

61%

level

20%

Utrecht W scores more

19%

Ajax W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

B. Van Egmond↳ D. Tolhoek

25'

L. van Oosten← I. Colin

26'

R. Derks↳ L. van Oosten

28'

B. Van Egmond↳ M. van Koppen

39'

D. Tolhoek↳ R. Derks

45'

J. van de Velde↳ A. Visscher

45'

D. Tolhoek↳ R. van Asten

46'

J. van Hensbergen← R. van Asten

46'

M. Snellenberg← A. Weerelts

46'

T. Groenendijk← D. van Straten

46'

E. Neter← S. Verhoeve

56'

R. Derks

61'

R. Derks

64'

L. Touzani← R. Derks

65'

J. Smits← M. van Koppen

69'

B. Koopman← M. Munsterman

82'

S. de Jong← J. Paliama

89'

X. Kip← B. Van Egmond

Ajax

Utrecht

1

Bastiaen

5

▼

Verhoeve

14

Kelder

33

▼

Weerelts

21

▼

Paliama

6

▼

15

9

8

19

23

▼

Straten

1

Eijk

24

Klonia

6

⚽

Velde

5

A

▼

Asten

2

A

Visscher

7

⚽3A

▼

Derks

20

▼

Colin

16

Noordman

11

⚽2

▼

Egmond

19

A

▼

Koppen

9

⚽2A

Tolhoek

Manager: Anouk Bruil

25'▲L. van Oosten←▼I. Colin

46'▲J. van Hensbergen←▼R. van Asten

64'▲L. Touzani←▼R. Derks

65'▲J. Smits←▼M. van Koppen

89'▲X. Kip←▼B. Van Egmond

Ajax W substitutes

22Vliet3Noordermeer4Turk10Smits12Hensbergen17Dostmohamed18Oosten21Buikema25Touzani26Kip

Manager: Linda Helbling

46'▲M. Snellenberg←▼A. Weerelts

46'▲T. Groenendijk←▼D. van Straten

46'▲E. Neter←▼S. Verhoeve

69'▲B. Koopman←▼M. Munsterman

82'▲S. de Jong←▼J. Paliama

Utrecht W substitutes

24Heus10Snellenberg39Dap50Koopman18Groenendijk2Hermans7Jong35Neter

Eredivisie Women: Ajax W 8–0 Utrecht W

Ajax W beat Utrecht W 8-0 in Eredivisie Women on December 7, 2025.

Goals: B. Van Egmond (6', 28'), R. Derks (26', 56', 61'), D. Tolhoek (39', 45'), J. van de Velde (45').

The match was played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst in Ouder-Amstel.

Ajax W vs Utrecht W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Eredivisie Women: Ajax W 8–0 Utrecht W