Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ajax W vs Roma W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Ajax W
Ajax W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Roma W
Roma W
1/30/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 6Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ajax W45%
×Draw21%
Roma W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax W
2.03
Roma W
1.75

Ajax W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ajax W
1.45
Roma W
2.50

allows per match

Ajax W
1.00
Roma W
2.61

finishing

Ajax W+0.00on par
Roma W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax W ↓

Roma W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ajax W or draw
66%
Ajax W or Roma W
79%
Draw or Roma W
55%

Winning margin

Ajax W wins by 2+
25%
Roma W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ajax W 1+ goals
87%
Ajax W 2+ goals
60%
Ajax W 3+ goals
33%
Roma W 1+ goals
83%
Roma W 2+ goals
52%
Roma W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ajax W (draw refunded)
57%
Roma W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax W at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Roma W away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax W attack 1.45 + Roma W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.03

Roma W attack 2.50 + Ajax W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ajax W scores more
45%
level
21%
Roma W scores more
34%

Ajax W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ajax W 2 – 1 Roma W

Ajax W beat Roma W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.