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Ajax W vs Paris Saint Germain W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Ajax W
Ajax W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
11/15/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 1Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ajax W36%
×Draw25%
Paris Saint Germain W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax W
1.38
Paris Saint Germain W
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ajax W
1.45
Paris Saint Germain W
1.93

allows per match

Ajax W
1.00
Paris Saint Germain W
1.30

finishing

Ajax W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ajax W or draw
61%
Ajax W or Paris Saint Germain W
75%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
64%

Winning margin

Ajax W wins by 2+
16%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ajax W 1+ goals
75%
Ajax W 2+ goals
40%
Ajax W 3+ goals
16%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
77%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
43%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ajax W (draw refunded)
48%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax W at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax W attack 1.45 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

Paris Saint Germain W attack 1.93 + Ajax W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ajax W scores more
36%
level
25%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
39%

Paris Saint Germain W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Ajax W 2–0 Paris Saint Germain W

Ajax W beat Paris Saint Germain W 2-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.