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Ajax W vs Fortuna Sittard W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Ajax W
Ajax W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Sittard W
Fortuna Sittard W
1/27/2024Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 13Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ajax W54%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Sittard W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax W
2.12
Fortuna Sittard W
1.38

Ajax W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ajax W
2.67
Fortuna Sittard W
2.16

allows per match

Ajax W
0.60
Fortuna Sittard W
1.56

finishing

Ajax W+0.00on par
Fortuna Sittard W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax W ↓

Fortuna Sittard W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ajax W or draw
75%
Ajax W or Fortuna Sittard W
79%
Draw or Fortuna Sittard W
46%

Winning margin

Ajax W wins by 2+
32%
Fortuna Sittard W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ajax W 1+ goals
88%
Ajax W 2+ goals
62%
Ajax W 3+ goals
35%
Fortuna Sittard W 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Sittard W 2+ goals
40%
Fortuna Sittard W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ajax W (draw refunded)
69%
Fortuna Sittard W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.60 · 73 matches

Fortuna Sittard W away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax W attack 2.67 + Fortuna Sittard W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.12

Fortuna Sittard W attack 2.16 + Ajax W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ajax W scores more
54%
level
21%
Fortuna Sittard W scores more
25%

Ajax W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: Ajax W 1–1 Fortuna Sittard W

Ajax W and Fortuna Sittard W drew 1-1 in Eredivisie Women on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.