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Ajax W vs Feyenoord W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Ajax W
Ajax W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Feyenoord W
Feyenoord W
2/8/2025Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 15Johan Cruijff ArenA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Ajax W60%
×Draw21%
Feyenoord W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax W
2.01
Feyenoord W
1.02

Ajax W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

creates per match

Ajax W
2.67
Feyenoord W
1.45

allows per match

Ajax W
0.60
Feyenoord W
1.35

finishing

Ajax W+0.00on par
Feyenoord W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax W ↓

Feyenoord W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ajax W or draw
81%
Ajax W or Feyenoord W
79%
Draw or Feyenoord W
40%

Winning margin

Ajax W wins by 2+
36%
Feyenoord W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ajax W 1+ goals
87%
Ajax W 2+ goals
59%
Ajax W 3+ goals
32%
Feyenoord W 1+ goals
64%
Feyenoord W 2+ goals
27%
Feyenoord W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ajax W (draw refunded)
76%
Feyenoord W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.60 · 73 matches

Feyenoord W away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax W attack 2.67 + Feyenoord W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 2.01

Feyenoord W attack 1.45 + Ajax W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ajax W scores more
60%
level
21%
Feyenoord W scores more
19%

Ajax W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajax W vs Feyenoord W

Ajax W beat Feyenoord W 2-0 in Eredivisie Women on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam.