Ajax W 1–3 Bayern Munich W: Result & Stats

Ajax W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Bayern Munich W

12/10/2020

UEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsSportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ajax W40%

×Draw24%

Bayern Munich W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax WExpected goals in this matchBayern Munich W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.48

Ajax W

1.57

Bayern Munich W

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

1.45

creates per match

1.96

1.00

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Ajax W

1.45

Bayern Munich W

1.96

allows per match

Ajax W

1.00

Bayern Munich W

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax W+0.00on par

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax W ↓

Bayern Munich W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ajax W or draw

64%

Ajax W or Bayern Munich W

76%

Draw or Bayern Munich W

60%

Winning margin

Ajax W wins by 2+

20%

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ajax W 1+ goals

79%

Ajax W 2+ goals

46%

Ajax W 3+ goals

21%

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

77%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

43%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ajax W (draw refunded)

53%

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax W at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Bayern Munich W away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax W attack 1.45 + Bayern Munich W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Bayern Munich W attack 1.96 + Ajax W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ajax W scores more

40%

level

24%

Bayern Munich W scores more

36%

Ajax W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff