Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ajax W vs Achiless 29 W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Ajax W
Ajax W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Achiless 29 W
Achiless 29 W
11/4/2018Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 8Sportpark De Toekomst (Duivendrecht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ajax W94%
×Draw5%
Achiless 29 W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax W
4.06
Achiless 29 W
0.45

Ajax W creates 802% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ajax W
2.67
Achiless 29 W
0.31

allows per match

Ajax W
0.60
Achiless 29 W
5.46

finishing

Ajax W+0.00on par
Achiless 29 W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax W ↓

Achiless 29 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Ajax W or draw
98%
Ajax W or Achiless 29 W
95%
Draw or Achiless 29 W
6%

Winning margin

Ajax W wins by 2+
82%
Achiless 29 W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Ajax W 1+ goals
98%
Ajax W 2+ goals
90%
Ajax W 3+ goals
74%
Achiless 29 W 1+ goals
36%
Achiless 29 W 2+ goals
8%
Achiless 29 W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ajax W (draw refunded)
98%
Achiless 29 W (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.60 · 73 matches

Achiless 29 W away — creates 0.31, concedes 5.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax W attack 2.67 + Achiless 29 W defence 5.46 → ÷2 → 4.06

Achiless 29 W attack 0.31 + Ajax W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Ajax W scores more
94%
level
5%
Achiless 29 W scores more
2%

Ajax W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajax W vs Achiless 29 W

Ajax W beat Achiless 29 W 3-0 in Eredivisie Women on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst (Duivendrecht).