Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ajax vs Olympiakos Piraeus — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ajax
Ajax
Preview
13:30
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club FriendliesSportcomplex De Toekomst
67%
Ajax
model favours
67%21%12%

Ajax score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ajax67%
×Draw21%
Olympiakos Piraeus12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
1.92
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.67

Ajax creates 187% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ajax
2.50
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.33

allows per match

Ajax
1.00
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.33

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par
Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
88%
Ajax or Olympiakos Piraeus
79%
Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus
33%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
41%
Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
85%
Ajax 2+ goals
57%
Ajax 3+ goals
30%
Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
49%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
15%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
85%
Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 2.50 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.33 + Ajax defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ajax scores more
67%
level
21%
Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
12%

Ajax at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Olympiakos Piraeus are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 32% of Ajax’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ajax
DWLDW
Piraeus
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ajax host Olympiakos Piraeus

July 18, 2026: Ajax take on Olympiakos Piraeus in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ajax host Olympiakos Piraeus at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.