Ajax 1–0 Olympiakos Piraeus: Result & Stats

Ajax

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olympiakos Piraeus

Carlos Forbs 43'

7/19/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 1RKSV Driel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ajax67%

×Draw22%

Olympiakos Piraeus12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaxExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.60

Ajax

1.83

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.60

Ajax creates 205% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

2.42

creates per match

0.25

0.95

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ajax

2.42

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.25

allows per match

Ajax

0.95

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ajax or draw

88%

Ajax or Olympiakos Piraeus

78%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

33%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+

40%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals

84%

Ajax 2+ goals

54%

Ajax 3+ goals

28%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

45%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

12%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)

85%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 2.42 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.83

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.25 + Ajax defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ajax scores more

67%

level

22%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

12%

Ajax at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Taylor

Ajax · M

7.5

Match Events

24'

B. Tahirović← O. Wijndal

43'

Carlos Forbs↳ K. Taylor

46'

A. Anagnostopoulos← A. Paschalakis

46'

Gelson Martins← C. Kostoulas

46'

C. Mouzakitis← A. Ntoi

46'

P. Retsos← N. Abbey

46'

Rodinei← Costinha

66'

P. Ugwu← K. Fitz-Jim

66'

A. Kaplan← J. Šutalo

66'

K. Hlynsson← J. Banel

66'

G. Biancone← Pep Biel

67'

A. Papakanellos← A. Apostolopoulos

80'

C. Akpom

84'

C. Kostoulas← T. Bakoulas

85'

A. Ntoi← Chiquinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AjaxOlympiakos

Overview

59%Possession41%

2Total Shots9

2Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

2Total Shots9

2On Target3

0Off Target4

0Blocked2

2Inside Box5

0Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

533Total Passes353

454Accurate Passes272

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2