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Ajax vs Beşiktaş — UEFA Champions League 2018

Ajax
Ajax
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
9/28/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 2Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ajax75%
×Draw15%
Beşiktaş10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
2.57
Beşiktaş
0.81

Ajax creates 217% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ajax
1.64
Beşiktaş
0.25

allows per match

Ajax
1.36
Beşiktaş
3.50

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par
Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Beşiktaş →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
90%
Ajax or Beşiktaş
85%
Draw or Beşiktaş
25%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
53%
Beşiktaş wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
92%
Ajax 2+ goals
72%
Ajax 3+ goals
47%
Beşiktaş 1+ goals
56%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
19%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
89%
Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 1.64 + Beşiktaş defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.57

Beşiktaş attack 0.25 + Ajax defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ajax scores more
75%
level
15%
Beşiktaş scores more
10%

Ajax at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajax vs Beşiktaş

Ajax beat Beşiktaş 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.