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Ajax vs Atalanta — UEFA Champions League 2026

Ajax
Ajax
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atalanta
Atalanta
L. Muriel 85'
12/9/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group D - 6Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ajax44%
×Draw23%
Atalanta34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
1.78
Atalanta
1.54

Ajax creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ajax
1.67
Atalanta
1.72

allows per match

Ajax
1.37
Atalanta
1.89

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par
Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
66%
Ajax or Atalanta
77%
Draw or Atalanta
56%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
23%
Atalanta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
83%
Ajax 2+ goals
53%
Ajax 3+ goals
26%
Atalanta 1+ goals
79%
Atalanta 2+ goals
45%
Atalanta 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
56%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 1.67 + Atalanta defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atalanta attack 1.72 + Ajax defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ajax scores more
44%
level
23%
Atalanta scores more
34%

Ajax at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. FreulerAtalantaAtalanta · M
7.9

Match Events

22'
Ryan Gravenberch
46'
Q. Promes← B. Brobbey
52'
Nicolás Tagliafico
60'
Hans Hateboer
63'
J. Ekkelenkamp← Z. Labyad
64'
K. Huntelaar← N. Tagliafico
79'
Ryan Gravenberch
79'
Ryan Gravenberch
79'
L. Muriel← D. Zapata
79'
J. Palomino← R. Gosens
82'
Remo Freuler
85'
L. Muriel↳ R. Freuler
90+6'
E. Álvarez← J. Timber
90+2'
J. Timber← L. Martínez

Possession

63%Ajax

Shots

12Ajax

Pass accuracy

54%Ajax

Statistics

AjaxAtalanta
Overview
63%Possession37%
12Total Shots8
6Corners4
20Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots8
2On Target2
3Off Target5
7Blocked1
4Inside Box6
8Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
605Total Passes354
509Accurate Passes252
84%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
20Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Ajax vs Atalanta

Atalanta beat Ajax 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on December 9, 2020.

Goals: L. Muriel (85').

Ajax controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.