Ajax U19 1–1 Internazionale U19: Result & Stats

Ajax U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internazionale U19

E. Unuvar 41'

J. Iddrissou 54'

9/17/2025

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 1Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ajax U1952%

×Draw21%

Internazionale U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax U19Expected goals in this matchInternazionale U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.57

Ajax U19

2.21

Internazionale U19

1.57

Ajax U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

2.60

creates per match

1.61

1.53

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Ajax U19

2.60

Internazionale U19

1.61

allows per match

Ajax U19

1.53

Internazionale U19

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax U19 ↓

Internazionale U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Ajax U19 or draw

73%

Ajax U19 or Internazionale U19

79%

Draw or Internazionale U19

48%

Winning margin

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

31%

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ajax U19 1+ goals

89%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

65%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

38%

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

79%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

46%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Internazionale U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax U19 attack 2.60 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.21

Internazionale U19 attack 1.61 + Ajax U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ajax U19 scores more

52%

level

21%

Internazionale U19 scores more

27%

Ajax U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ajax U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

E. Unuvar↳ S. Steur

54'

J. Iddrissou↳ M. Marello

64'

T. Romers← M. Verkuijl

65'

L. Abildgaard← J. Simeon

65'

P. La Torre← A. Vukoje

65'

K. Moressa← A. El Mahboubi

74'

T. Teuwsen← E. Unuvar

77'

S. Steur

85'

R. Kukulis← M. Mosconi

86'

K. Kasanwirjo← L. Jetten

86'

H. Ayyildiz← A. Ouazane

Ajax

Internazionale

1

2

6

5

3

A

Marello

10

▼

Vukoje

4

Cerpellet

8

Hidalgo

9

⚽

Iddrissou

11

▼

Mosconi

7

▼

Mahboubi

1

Hani

2

Frankel

5

▼

Jetten

4

Tilborg

3

Bouwman

6

▼

Verkuijl

7

▼

Simeon

8

A

Steur

9

⚽

▼

Unuvar

10

▼

Ouazane

11

Nash

Manager: Paul Nuijten

64'▲T. Romers←▼M. Verkuijl

65'▲L. Abildgaard←▼J. Simeon

74'▲T. Teuwsen←▼E. Unuvar

86'▲K. Kasanwirjo←▼L. Jetten

86'▲H. Ayyildiz←▼A. Ouazane

Ajax U19 substitutes

12Engel15Perez16Beekman17Kasanwirjo18Romers19Ayyildiz20Abildgaard21Teuwsen22Acheampong

Manager: Benito Carbone

65'▲P. La Torre←▼A. Vukoje

65'▲K. Moressa←▼A. El Mahboubi

85'▲R. Kukulis←▼M. Mosconi

Internazionale U19 substitutes

12Farronato13Mackiewicz14Conti15Williamson16Torre17Moressa18Putsen19Humanes20Kukulis

UEFA Youth League: Ajax U19 1–1 Internazionale U19

Ajax U19 and Internazionale U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on September 17, 2025.

Goals: E. Unuvar (41'), J. Iddrissou (54').

The match was played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst in Ouder-Amstel.

Ajax U19 vs Internazionale U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Ajax U19 1–1 Internazionale U19