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Ajax Cape Town vs Supersport United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Ajax Cape Town
Ajax Cape Town
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Supersport United
Supersport United
10/4/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 7Athlone Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajax Cape Town34%
×Draw30%
Supersport United36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Cape Town
1.04
Supersport United
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 104 away

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town
0.95
Supersport United
0.97

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town
1.21
Supersport United
1.13

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par
Supersport United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Supersport United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw
64%
Ajax Cape Town or Supersport United
70%
Draw or Supersport United
66%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+
13%
Supersport United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals
65%
Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals
28%
Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals
9%
Supersport United 1+ goals
66%
Supersport United 2+ goals
30%
Supersport United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)
48%
Supersport United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Supersport United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Supersport United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Supersport United attack 0.97 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more
34%
level
30%
Supersport United scores more
36%

Supersport United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajax Cape Town vs Supersport United

Supersport United beat Ajax Cape Town 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Athlone Stadium in Cape Town, WC.