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Ajax Cape Town vs Stellenbosch — Premier Soccer League 2018

Ajax Cape Town
Ajax Cape Town
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
11/28/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 10DHL Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajax Cape Town32%
×Draw30%
Stellenbosch38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Cape Town
0.98
Stellenbosch
1.11

Stellenbosch creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 104 away

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town
0.95
Stellenbosch
1.01

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town
1.21
Stellenbosch
1.01

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par
Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Stellenbosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw
62%
Ajax Cape Town or Stellenbosch
70%
Draw or Stellenbosch
68%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+
12%
Stellenbosch wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals
62%
Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals
26%
Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals
8%
Stellenbosch 1+ goals
67%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
30%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)
45%
Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Stellenbosch away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Stellenbosch defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Stellenbosch attack 1.01 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more
32%
level
30%
Stellenbosch scores more
38%

Stellenbosch at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajax Cape Town vs Stellenbosch

Stellenbosch beat Ajax Cape Town 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at DHL Cape Town Stadium in Cape Town, WC.