Ajax Cape Town 0–1 Moroka Swallows: Result & Stats

Ajax Cape Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Moroka Swallows

3/31/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 17Athlone Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajax Cape Town35%

×Draw31%

Moroka Swallows34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax Cape TownExpected goals in this matchMoroka Swallows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.97

Ajax Cape Town

1.00

Moroka Swallows

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 62 away

0.95

creates per match

0.74

1.21

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town

0.95

Moroka Swallows

0.74

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town

1.21

Moroka Swallows

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Moroka Swallows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw

66%

Ajax Cape Town or Moroka Swallows

69%

Draw or Moroka Swallows

65%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

13%

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

63%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

26%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

8%

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals

62%

Moroka Swallows 2+ goals

25%

Moroka Swallows 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

51%

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more

35%

level

31%

Moroka Swallows scores more

34%

Ajax Cape Town at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ajax Cape Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff