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Ajax Cape Town vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Ajax Cape Town
Ajax Cape Town
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
5/25/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 24DHL Cape Town Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajax Cape Town30%
×Draw30%
Kaizer Chiefs40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Cape Town
0.95
Kaizer Chiefs
1.14

Kaizer Chiefs creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 119 away

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town
0.95
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town
1.21
Kaizer Chiefs
0.95

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw
60%
Ajax Cape Town or Kaizer Chiefs
70%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
70%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+
11%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals
61%
Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals
25%
Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals
7%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
68%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
32%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)
43%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more
30%
level
30%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
40%

Kaizer Chiefs at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Ajax Cape Town 2–0 Kaizer Chiefs

Ajax Cape Town beat Kaizer Chiefs 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at DHL Cape Town Stadium in Cape Town, WC.