Ajax Cape Town 1–2 Golden Arrows: Result & Stats

Ajax Cape Town

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Golden Arrows

9/19/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 5Athlone Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajax Cape Town38%

×Draw29%

Golden Arrows34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax Cape TownExpected goals in this matchGolden Arrows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.09

Ajax Cape Town

1.17

Golden Arrows

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 120 away

0.95

creates per match

0.98

1.21

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town

0.95

Golden Arrows

0.98

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town

1.21

Golden Arrows

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Golden Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Golden Arrows →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw

66%

Ajax Cape Town or Golden Arrows

71%

Draw or Golden Arrows

62%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

16%

Golden Arrows wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

69%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

33%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

11%

Golden Arrows 1+ goals

66%

Golden Arrows 2+ goals

30%

Golden Arrows 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

53%

Golden Arrows (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Golden Arrows away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Golden Arrows defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Golden Arrows attack 0.98 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more

38%

level

29%

Golden Arrows scores more

34%

Ajax Cape Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ajax Cape Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff