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Ajax Amateurs vs Ter Leede — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
FT
3 – 0
Ter Leede
Ter Leede
9/12/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 2Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ajax Amateurs47%
×Draw22%
Ter Leede32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.98
Ter Leede
1.60

Ajax Amateurs creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
Ter Leede
1.53

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
Ter Leede
2.36

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

Ter Leede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
68%
Ajax Amateurs or Ter Leede
78%
Draw or Ter Leede
53%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
26%
Ter Leede wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
86%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
59%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
31%
Ter Leede 1+ goals
80%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
47%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
60%
Ter Leede (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
47%
level
22%
Ter Leede scores more
32%

Ajax Amateurs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ajax Amateurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Ajax Amateurs 3–0 Ter Leede

Ajax Amateurs beat Ter Leede 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.