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Ajax Amateurs vs SteDoCo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
CANC
00:00
SteDoCo
SteDoCo
5/9/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 32Sportpark De Toekomst (Amsterdam-Duivendrecht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ajax Amateurs37%
×Draw23%
SteDoCo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.65
SteDoCo
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
SteDoCo
1.77

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
SteDoCo
1.71

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
SteDoCo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

SteDoCo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
60%
Ajax Amateurs or SteDoCo
77%
Draw or SteDoCo
63%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
19%
SteDoCo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
81%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
49%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
23%
SteDoCo 1+ goals
82%
SteDoCo 2+ goals
51%
SteDoCo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
48%
SteDoCo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

SteDoCo away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + SteDoCo defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

SteDoCo attack 1.77 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
37%
level
23%
SteDoCo scores more
40%

SteDoCo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SteDoCo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ajax Amateurs face SteDoCo (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with Ajax Amateurs hosting SteDoCo. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ajax Amateurs host SteDoCo at Sportpark De Toekomst (Amsterdam-Duivendrecht).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.