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Ajax Amateurs vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
11/30/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 15Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ajax Amateurs35%
×Draw23%
Sparta Nijkerk43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax Amateurs
1.58
Sparta Nijkerk
1.77

Sparta Nijkerk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 97 away

creates per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.59
Sparta Nijkerk
1.87

allows per match

Ajax Amateurs
1.67
Sparta Nijkerk
1.58

finishing

Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par
Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Amateurs ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ajax Amateurs or draw
57%
Ajax Amateurs or Sparta Nijkerk
77%
Draw or Sparta Nijkerk
65%

Winning margin

Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
17%
Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
79%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
47%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
21%
Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
83%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
53%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
45%
Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Amateurs at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.59 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + Ajax Amateurs defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ajax Amateurs scores more
35%
level
23%
Sparta Nijkerk scores more
43%

Sparta Nijkerk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Ajax Amateurs 3–4 Sparta Nijkerk

Sparta Nijkerk beat Ajax Amateurs 4-3 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.